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INSIGHTS

Commercial Loans, Cap Rates, And The “Quality” Of Income

By AGCADMIN

This is the perfect time to talk about the “quality” of income. Real estate crashes seem to strike about every ten to fourteen years, and it has been thirteen years since the Great Recession. If we were to have another commercial real estate crash, would you rather own a building leased to Betty’s Gift Shop or one leased to Amazon.com?

The quality of income refers to the likelihood that you are going to receive it.  All money is green, whether it comes from the headquarters of the Catholic Church in America or from Boom-Boom’s Place, LLC, a chain of gentlemen’s clubs in southern Louisiana.

But is it likely that Boom-Boom’s Place may have a little trouble making its rent payments or its mortgage loan payments if the economy completely tanks?  Guys are less likely to be drinking five beers a night and spending $30 on tips to the dancers if they are out of work.

Okay, obviously, we would rather be on the receiving end of $7,000 per month from Amazon.com than from Betty’s Gift Shop; but in order to win that deal, we have to make some sacrifices.

Amazon.com, Inc. signs a lease for a small industrial building, perhaps used to repair its delivery trucks.  Upon the execution (signing) of the lease, the owners of the little industrial building offers the property for sale.

Now normal industrial buildings in Portland are selling at, say, 6.5% cap rates.  In other words, if an investor paid all cash for a garden-vareity industrial building in Portland, he could expect to earn, after paying all expenses and setting aside a little money every year to eventually replace the roof and the HVAC system in 12 years, a return on his money of around 6.5%.

A cap rate is just the return on your money if you paid all cash for a commercial building.

Wake up, folks! The money in this industry is in loan servicing fees!

Before computing that return on your money, always remember that you need to set aside a little money every year to replace the roof and the HVAC system.  This is called the replacement reserve.

Okay, so the seller has a building leased to Amazon.com for $7,000 per month.  Your accountant tells you that you need to set aside $850 per month to eventually replace the roof, repave the parking lot, and replace the HVAC system.  So the investment is scheduled to yield $6,150 per month.

Since industrial buildings in Portland typically sell at a 6.5% cap rate, you compute the value as follows:  Six-thousand-one-hundred-fifty dollars per month times twelve months suggests an annual net operating income (“NOI”) of $73,800.

If you divide the annual net operating income (NOI) by the proper cap rate (expressed as a decimal), you get its value.

Okay, so $73,800 divided by .065 (6.5% expressed as decimal) equals a value $1.14 million.  Therefore you submit your offer of $1.14 million.  The selling broker falls out of his chair laughing.  What the heck?

“George,” he says, “Betty’s Gift Shop might sell for $1.14 million (a 6.5% cap rate), but this is Amazon.com!  The world could be in complete chaos, yet a buyer could absolutely depend on Amazon making its rent payments.  There are investors out there who need the security of predictable payments, and they will pay far extra to buy that stream of predictable payments.”

“George, I have offers on this building of $1.5 million, $1.72 million, and finally $1.85 million.  That works out to a 4% cap rate.”

When a real estate and stock market crash is coming, it’s all about the quality of the income.

By George Blackburne

INSIGHTS

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By AGCADMIN
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INSIGHTS

Commercial Loan Rates Being Quoted By Banks Today

By AGCADMIN

This is going to surprise you, but commercial banks, credit unions, and federal savings banks (the old S&L’s with a Federal charter) all quote pretty much the exact same interest rates and terms on commercial real estate loans.

This is true for huge commercial banks in Los Angeles and for little credit unions in Maine.  No matter where the property is located, as a commercial loan broker, you will always know what to quote.

To be clear, we are talking about commercial real estate loans on standard commercial rental properties, like office buildings, shopping centers, retail buildings, and industrial buildings.

The rates and terms will be a little more scattered for multifamily properties.  Some banks, especially savings banks, love-love-love apartment buildings.  They will quote delicious interest rates and terms.

Smaller commercial banks are less enamored with apartment buildings because their owners seldom keep huge deposits in their company checking accounts.  If they have cash, they immediately go out and buy another building.  In contrast, widget manufacturers might keep large balances in their bank for the the new bank to win.  Banks, especially smaller ones, are all about deposit relationships.

Before we get into the interest rates being quoted by banks on commercial loans today, let’s first talk about terms:

Amortization:

Most banks will quote a 25-year amortization.  A twenty-year amortization is to commercial loans what a 30-year amortization is to home loans.  It’s the norm.

If the property is older than, say, than 35-years, the bank might insist on just a 20-year amortization because the property is getting pretty long in the tooth.  The building is not going to last forever.  The bank needs to eventually get their principal back before the termites stop holding hands.

Term:

Most commercial banks today will give you a ten-year term on your commercial loan.

Fixed on Adjustable:

The typical bank commercial loan is fixed for the first five years.  There is one rate readjustment at the beginning of year six, and then the rate is fixed for the remaining five years.

When the rate readjusts, what is adjustment tied to?  In other words, what is the index and what is the margin?

This is going to surprise you, but most banks don’t say!  What????  The promissory note will simply say, “The rate will readjust to whatever the bank is quoting at the time for similar commercial loans.”

What if the bank tries to raise the interest rate to 20%?  This could actually happen, if the dollar were to suddenly collapse.

In such a case, the bank would give you a window in order to pay off their loan, without penalty, with a new loan from a cheaper lender.  A window is a period when there is no prepayment penalty.  Most commercial real estate loans from banks give the borrowers a 90-day window after a rate readjustment.

Prepayment Penalty:

Banks differ on prepayment penalties.  The penalty could vary from 1% to 2% during the entire 5-year term, to a declining prepayment penalty of 3% in year one, 2% in year two, 1% in year three, and perhaps 1% in years four and five.

So what do you quote on a $300,000 permanent loan on a little retail building in Bum Flowers, Alabama?  I want you to quote 3%-2%-1% and none thereafter.  No bank is going to refuse to make a good commercial loan if it can get a declining prepayment penalty of 3%-2%-1%.

Will a bank ever make a commercial real estate loan with absolutely no prepayment penalty?  The deal would have to be very, very good to get them to waive it completely.

Interest Rate:

Banks all quote pretty much the exact same interest rate – between 2.75% to 3.5% over five-year Treasuries, depending on the quality of deal (more on this below).

Five-year Treasuries as of January 22, 2021 were 0.44%.  Therefore the bank is going to quote you between 3.19% to 3.94% today.

You can always find the latest commercial real estate interest rates and Index values by going to our wonderful Resource Center.  Be sure to bookmark this wonderful reference source.

Quality of the Deal:

Here are the factors that affects bank interest rates on commercial loans –

    1. How much cash does the borrower keep in the bank?  The more liquid your borrower, the lower his interest rate.
    2. How old is the property?  The younger the building, the lower the rate.
    3. How gorgeous is the building?  The prettier the building, the lower your rate.
    4. How desirable is the location?  If your building is located on the bets street in town, you may get the bank’s very lowest commercial loan interest rate.
    5. Assuming you are at a bank of suitable size, the larger the loan, the lower the rate.  Big banks make big commercial loans.  Small banks make small commercial loans.  Match the size of your bank to the size of your deal.
    6. How close is the building to the bank?  The further your building is from the bank, the higher the interest rate you will probably get.

Moral of the Story:

Always apply to a local bank.

By George Blackburne

INSIGHTS

Are Low Interest Rates, The New – Normal?: 4 Questions

By AGCADMIN

We are currently, witnessing, a period, of time, with the longest, extended period, of historically, low, interest rates, in recent memory! While, there are many reasons, for this, it may be, beneficial, to better understand, the fundamentals, and relationships/ ramifications/ impacts, of this sort of prolonged, extended period. However, it’s also important, to recognize, since, we have never witnessed this, before, our concepts are based on theories, concepts, and apparent, common sense. Will interest rates, remain, this low, and become, the New – Normal, or, will, we, once again, see cycles, over – time? With that in mind, this article will attempt to, briefly, consider, examine, review, and discuss, 4 questions, and whether, it will, in the longer – run, create undesirable ramifications.

1. Historic lows – How low, will rates go?: In the last year, or two, many have believed, we experienced, the lowest rates, only, to discover, they went, even – lower! Although, these are historic lows, how low, will they go? We observe mortgage interest rates, which have never been lower, in recent memory, and the impacts. In housing, it means, a buyer, can purchase, more house, for – his – bucks, because, it creates low monthly payments, etc. It also means, individuals, can qualify for bigger loans, because, their monthly expenditures, are a lower percentage of one’s overall income, etc. When, banks pay, such low – interest, and bonds, such, low dividends, it contributes, strongly, to the rising stock market, for a number of reasons, including, it being, the only game, in – town! However, banks and lenders, also, reap large profits, because, they still charge high rates, on credit cards, and, other, unsecured – consumer loans! It helps car dealers, because, especially, lease rates, but, also car loans, becomes more attractive!

2. Historically, rates fluctuate?: Will they do so, this time?: A review of historic trends, indicates, rates fluctuate, over – time. Since, they seem to have usually done – so, will this occur again, and, if – so, when? Since, the United States budget deficit is also, at a record – high, will that prolong, or reduce, this current period?

3. Relationship between rates and stocks: Because, when rates are low, using bank vehicles, or bonds, bills, etc, become less attractive, largely, because, they may not, even, keep – up, with the inflation rate, especially, in the long – term! Therefore, the stock market, usually benefits, because, many borrow cheap – money, and invest it, in stocks, and, it also, becomes, the only game, in – town!

4. If this continues, what will Federal Reserve use, as new/ future incentives. stimulus: Historically, the Federal Reserve, used lower rates, to stimulate investing, and/ or, spending. If this becomes the New – Normal, what will be the weapons, available, etc?

Will this become the New – Normal, or, just, a temporary, cyclical occurrence? The smartest strategy is to understand impacts, and be prepared!

Richard has owned businesses, been a COO, CEO, Director of Development, consultant, professionally run events, consulted to thousands, assisted with financial planning, and conducted personal development seminars, for 4 decades. Rich has written three books and thousands of articles. Website: http://plan2lead.net and LIKE the Facebook page for planning: http://facebook.com/Plan2lead

Article Source: https://EzineArticles.com/expert/Richard_Brody/492539

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/10411172

INSIGHTS

Commercial Loans and Why Interest Rates Are Falling Like a Rock

By AGCADMIN

The ten largest economies include (1) the United States; (2) China; (3) Japan; (4) Germany; (5) United Kingdom; (6) India; (7) France; (8) Italy; (9) Brazil; and (10) Canada.  I was personally surprised to see that the economies of both Brazil and Canada made the top ten.

Most of these economies are shrinking in population, and this is extremely deflationary.

Why is a shrinking population deflationary?  In order for the money supply of a modern economy to grow, its banks need to make new loans.  In order to make new loans, banks need borrowers.  If the number of potential borrowers is shrinking, eventually the country’s money supply – and hence inflation – will shrink.

Why is deflation so bad?  A little bit of deflation is not terrible.  It makes the dollars of working Americans go further.  For example, if the price of a new bike for your kid falls from $70 to $62 over two years, that is surely not a bad thing.

But there is a dark side to deflation.  For one thing, deflation makes it harder to make the loan payments on your existing debt.  For example, if your mortgage payments are fixed at $2,000 per month, and the prevailing wage rate is falling at 2% per year, you could be in for a world of hurt if you have to change jobs and accept a new one at the lower wage rate.

The second problem is that deflation slows an economy because people postpone their purchases.  For example, why buy a new car for $50,000 this year when the price will probably fall to $46,000 next year?  Why not just postpone your purchase until next year?  If enough Americans delay their purchases of a new car, the automotive industry will soon tank and tens of thousands of workers will be laid off.

Lastly, significant deflation usually comes with a contracting economy, layoffs, falling demand, and job insecurity.  Deflation can easily become self-feeding.

This is so important that I am going to say it again.  Deflation can easily become self-feeding.  A modern economy can quickly cycle down the drain.

So the cycle goes as follows:

People stop having children.  The number of potential borrowers shrinks.  As the number of potential borrowers shrinks, banks make fewer loans.  The money supply then contracts, and a wave of deflation sweeps the country.  As deflation washes over a country, it becomes harder for borrowers to raise the dough to make their loan payments.  As more borrowers start to default, the banks get frightened and stop lending; but they keep gathering in their loan payments.  Because the Multiplier Effect works in reverse at the rate of 20:1, for every $1,000 received in loan payments that is not immediately recycled back out into a new loan, a whopping $20,000 get sucked out of the country’s money supply.

Then you REALLY have deflation, like we had in 2008, when at least four trillion dollars was destroyed.  Yes, money can be destroyed.  How else do you think the Fed could have injected $4 trillion into the economy without creating horrible hyperinflation?

The U.S. used to be the one shining star in terms of population growth.  Most of this population growth came from immigration.  The U.S. birth rate is not large enough to replace itself.  With the U.S. now preventing migration from the south, the population of the U.S. will soon start to decline.

Even China, which has lifted its One Child Policy, is shrinking.  The cost of education is high in China, so the typical Chinese family is saying, “Naw, no thanks.  One child is enough.”

Adding to this deflationary trend is the graying of each of the top ten economies.  Over a billion retired folks across the modern world are saying, “I’m done.  Take my life’s savings and give me an income.”

The problem is that there is FAR too much savings, too little growth potential, and not enough workers to do all of the work.  The young people are saying, through their lack of loan demand, “We don’t need your stinky money, old man and old lady.  We’ve got more than enough money to do what we want.”

There is too much saving retirement chasing too few borrowers.  Therefore, the price (interest rates) must come down.

Grasp this concept:  There is now almost $11 TRILLION dollars invested in bonds, CD’s and business loans with a negative yield.   Most of this is in Europe and Japan.  Did you know that in Europe you now have to pay your bank to accept your deposits?!

Investors in Europe and Japan are so desperate for yield that they are snapping up U.S. Treasury securities.  Did you know that the yield on the U.S. ten-year bond dropped from 2.03% yesterday to just 1.88% yesterday?!!!  The ten-year U.S. bond yield may drop below 1% within the next 18 months – maybe even within one year.

I don’t want the world.  I just want to refinance every commercial building in America with a lower interest rate.  Is that too much to ask?  🙂