Category Archive : INSIGHTS

Commercial Loans And Modern Monetary Theory

Now that I have mentioned it, you will start to hear the term, Modern Monetary Theory, all of time.  The commentators use it a lot on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business.  The financial commentators will often just use the acronym, “MMT”.

According to Wikipedia, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a macroeconomic framework that says monetarily sovereign governments should sustain higher deficits and print as much money as needed because they do not need to worry about insolvency, and inflation is a distant possibility.

The key to MMT is that the sovereign government borrows in its own currency, pays it back in its own currency, and controls the printing press to print more of its own currency.  Countries in the European Union – France, Spain, Italy, and Greece – are examples of sovereign governments that do NOT have this option.  They use the Euro, which is a currency that they don’t control.

Interesting note:

Since I started this article, Boris Johnson and his conservatives won a landslide victory in the United Kingdom.  The U.K. will be leaving the European Union (Brexit) on January 15th.  The pound has soared!  Apparently investors think that the Brits are going to do better financially without Europe.

The Japanese, in contrast to EU members, can borrow in yen and repay their debt in yen.  If the debt service on Japan’s debt, denominated in yen, becomes unbearable, Japan can simply print hundreds of trillions of yen, buy back their own debt, and retire it permanently.

In other words, as long as inflation remains tame, the U.S. should go ahead and pass a $1.5 trillion infrastructure spending plan, even if the deficit soars to $2.5 trillion annually.  We spend the money to repair our bridges and upgrade our airports.  Then we take another look at inflation.

If inflation is still tame, we could increase military spending by another $1 trillion and bolster our missile forces, bolster our missile defense forces, and greatly expand our Space Force.

I read a military journal article this morning where one of our leading air force generals (just forced into retirement) begged the country to prepare for war in space.  China is already working on a space mothership (think of it as an aircraft carrier in space – see the picture above) from which attack space ships will fly out to destroy our constellation of satellites.  “… and you don’t believe we’re on the Eve of Destruction?”  (Famous hippie song from the 1960’s.)

So go ahead and spend that $1 trillion on defense and then take another look at the inflation rate.  Has inflation increased from 1.75% to 4.5%?   In that case, maybe the country dials back on any extra MMT spending.

Is it a good idea?  I am convinced that a world war is coming, so I am all for it.  If we can spend enough in space and on missiles, maybe China won’t attack us.  I’ll gladly live with some inflation, if that means that my precious kids (and now grandkids) get to live.

But absent a war, is it a good idea?  If Trump died and made me king, I would use the power of the printing press to buy up many of the nicest apartment buildings, office buildings, and shopping centers in Rio de Janeiro, Jakarta, Seoul, Ho Chi Min City, Bangkok, and Manilla.  I would intentionally devalue the dollar to make our manufacturing companies more competitive.  In the process, the rents from those trophy properties would be sweet.

But you know that’s not what is going to happen.  Opportunists like Andrew Yang are going to promise to give away $1,000 per month to every American voter, in order to rise to power.  We are going to teach our people – instead of working hard to advance themselves – to stay home all day, take drugs, and play video games.

In the words of Alexander Fraser Tytler, the famous Scottish historian, in 1807:

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government.  It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.  The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.  These nations have progressed through this sequence:  From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”

He made this famous observation way back in 1807.  Our 200 years of power are long past.  Hail Chairman For Life, Xi Jinping!  It’s important to get in good graces with our future rulers early.  Haha!

By George Blackburne

Please Pay Special Attention Commercial Real Estate Brokers

Why do almost all gas stations now have convenience stores?  Answer:  A convenience store is an extra profit center.  The gas pumps pull in the customers, and while they are waiting for their tanks to fill, the convenience store sell them sodas, snacks, lotto tickets, and hot dogs.

Right now your real estate web site is like a gas station without a convenience store.  You are leaving all kinds of dough on the table.  Over the next five to six years, C-Loans.com could pay you enough dough to pay for a year of college for one of your kids.

But what I am asking you to do is a lot of hard work.  You might have to spend up to… gasp… two whole minutes on this project.  It’s exhausting work earning that kind of money.  Phew.

Just send an email to your web site guru.  “Hey [Steve], please create three new hyperlinks on my home page.  Please find a place to put one at the top, one in the middle, and one at the bottom.  The top link should say, ‘Commercial Loans’.  The middle link should say, ‘Commercial Real Estate Loans’.  The bottom link should say, ‘Commercial Financing’.  Please point all three links to C-Loans.com.”

Just cut and paste the above paragraph and send it to your webmaster.  Voila.  You’re done.  You’ve just added a convenience store to your gas station – a new profit center.

Now here is what happens:  C-Loans is programmed to automatically capture the URL of the referring site and print it at the bottom of our loan application.  It’s automatic.  We don’t have to think.  Bam!  Right there at the bottom of our loan application are the words, “This loan was referred by billsmithrealty.com.”

When the deal closes, we look up the owner of Bill Smith Realty and send him a check for 12.5 basis points.  That’s what happened a few years ago with Alan Dunn, the owner of a site named SpyderCube.  We ended up closing a $17 million commercial loan for Alan’s customer, so we sent Alan a check for a whopping $21,250.

Alan was even asleep when he made that $21,250.  The deal came in late at night.  Can you imagine the thrill of getting a call, “Hey, Alan, I have some good news for you.”  Hot snot, I’ll bet that we made his whole day.

And here’s the thing.  That potential borrower is your referral forever.  Maybe the first deal falls out, but the borrower comes back and applies for a different loan two years later.  You still get paid.  He’s your guy.

Here is another wonderful thing.  C-Loans is not a commercial real estate lender, limited to its own lending programs.  C-Loans does not make loans.  C-Loans.com is merely a  commercial mortgage portal where borrowers can submit their deals to 750 different lenders.  We have life companies, conduits, banks, credit unions, savings banks (S&L’s), REIT’s, hard money lenders, SBA lenders and USDA business and industry specialty lenders.

C-Loans lenders will make permanent loans, construction loans, bridge loans, SBA loans, USDA B&I loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity investments, SBA construction loans, and USDA construction loans.  A link to C-Loans gives you a chance to earn a big referral fee on ANY kind and size of commercial real estate loan, from $100,000 to $500 million.  Yes, our conduit lenders have made loans of this size on chains of major hotel franchises or portfolios of office buildings.

Important note:  C-Loans usually earns at least 37.5 bps. per closing, so we can afford to pay you 12.5 bps.  On deals of greater than $5 million, our best-rate lenders only pay us 25 bps., so your referral fee would be 8.33 bps.

“Gee, George, this all sounds great and everything, but how do I know that you won’t cheat me?”  For one thing, we didn’t cheat Alan Dunn, and there was no way he would have known that we had closed that big deal.  I am also an attorney, licensed in both California and Indiana.

Lastly, my hard money commercial lending shop, Blackburne & Sons, has been in business for 40 years now.  The average daily balance in our trust accounts is $400,000; and after a loan payoff, there could be several million dollars in that account.  If I ever decide to go bad, I am gonna steal the millions in that trust account, not your stinky ‘ole referral fee.  🙂  Fortunately, I have managed to resist the temptation for 40 years.  I am proud to say that both of my sons and I are Eagle Scouts.  There was a time when that mattered.

But hey, while 100,000 people in this industry may know me, I might be a complete stranger to you.  Trust but verify, some would say.  So here is my proposition:  If you create five or more commercial financing links across your real estate web site, we will create for you a special partner link.  With a special partner link, you will get a copy of every deal that comes from your site.  Just create the five (or fifteen) commercial loans links on your real estate website, and we will create this special partner link for you.  It takes us about 30 minutes to create such as a partner link, so we obviously don’t want to have to create the link unless we are getting some really good visibility.

Now back to the good stuff.  After awhile, you are going to have several hundred of your loan clients registered on C-Loans as your guys, and you are likely to close two or three deals every year going forward.  Every year going forward – think about that.  You will have your old referrals and then you will add to that base of potential referral fees even more clients every year.

And if you create at least five links on your website to C-Loans, you can also use your partner link to imbed commercial real estate loan links in your regular newsletters to your clients.  Remember, with a partner link, you get a copy of every commercial loan application generated by your site or one of your newsletters.

I could see a time when one of your clients applies for a purchase money loan using C-Loans, and you suddenly realize that he is looking to buy another apartment building.  (Please read that last sentence again.)

Important note:  We cannot track links inside of newsletters because there is no referring URL.  To embed commercial financing links in your newsletters, you will need for us to prepare a partner link for you.  Therefore, please create your five referral links to C-Loans.com right away and then contact Tom Blackburne at 574-210-6686.

Now some real estate brokers only like a little bit of referral income, so they only create one Commercial Loans link to C-Loans.com on their home page.  Smarter real estate brokers like to make a TON of referral fee income, so they put three links to C-Loans on every one of their interior web pages.

The way you can easily do this is to have your website guru edit the template of your pages to add these three links.  Then, whenever your webmaster creates a new web page for you, the links automatically appear on the new page, without anyone having to think about adding them.  The more links to C-Loans, the more chances you have have of earning a $21,250 referral fee.

In conclusion, I urge you to add a convenience store to your gas station.  Just cut and paste the following message into an email to your webmaster:

“Hey, [Steve], please create three new hyperlinks on my home page. Please find a place to put a link at the top, one in the middle, and one at the bottom. The top link should say, ‘Commercial Loans’.  The middle link should say, ‘Commercial Real Estate Loans’.  The bottom link should say, ‘Commercial Financing’.  Please point all three links to C-Loans.com.”

Now, the really, really smart guys will add the following:

“In addition, [Steve], would you please edit the template you use to create new web pages for our site to add these three links (top, middle, bottom)?  This way, the next time you create a new web page for us, the new page will automatically contain these three links.”

Voila!  You have now added a convenience store to your gas station.  I said it would take a whopping two minutes, and you did it in just 97 seconds.  🙂

By George Blackburne

Questions:  Call Tom Blackburne at 574-210-6686.

 

What Is The Debt Yield Ratio?

“Hey, George, recently I have heard commercial real estate loan officers talking about some new ratio called the Debt Yield Ratio.  Is this just a shortened version of the Debt Service Coverage Ratio?”

Answer:  No.  The two ratios are totally different.  The Debt Yield Ratio is defined as the Net Operating Income (NOI) divided by the first mortgage debt (loan) amount, times 100%.

Example:

Let’s say that a commercial property has a NOI of $437,000 per year, and some conduit lender has been asked to make a new first mortgage loan in the amount of $6,000,000.  Four-hundred thirty-seven thousand dollars divided by $6,000,000 is .073.  Multiplied by 100% produces a Debt Yield Ratio of 7.3%.

What this means is that the conduit lender would enjoy a 7.3% cash-on-cash return on its money if it foreclosed on the commercial property on Day One.

Please notice that the Debt Yield Ratio does not even look at the cap rate used to value the property.  It does not consider the interest rate on the commercial lender’s loan, nor does it factor in the amortization of the lender’s loan; e.g., 20 years versus 25 years.  The only factor that the Debt Yield Ratio considers is how large of a loan the commercial lender is advancing compared to the property’s NOI.

This is intentional.  Commercial lenders and CMBS investors want to make sure that low interest rates, low caps rates, and high leverage never again push commercial real estate valuations to sky-high levels.

So what is an acceptable Debt Yield Ratio?  For several years after the Great Recession, 10% was the lowest Debt Yield Ratio that most conduit lenders were using to determine the maximum size of their advances.  That number has crept down to 9% today and occasionally lower.

In our example above, the subject commercial property generated a NOI of $437,000.  Four-hundred thirty-seven dollars divided by 0.10 (10% expressed as a decimal) would suggest a maximum loan amount of $4,370,000.

Typically a Debt Yield Ratio of 9% produces a loan-to-value ratio between 65% and 70%, about the maximum level of leverage that the current CMBS B-piece buyers will allow.

It is the money center banks and investment banks originating fixed-rate, conduit-style commercial loans that are using the new Debt Yield Ratio.  Commercial banks, lending for their own portfolio, and most other commercial lenders have not yet adopted the Debt Yield Ratio.

You will notice in my definition of the Debt Yield Ratio that I used as the “debt” just the first mortgage debt.  The reason why I threw in the words first mortgage is because more and more new conduit deals involve a mezzanine loan at the time of origination.  The existence of a sizable mezzanine loan behind the first mortgage does NOT affect the size of the conduit’s new first mortgage, at least as far as this ratio is concerned.

Will a conduit ever accept a Debt Yield Ratio of less than 9%?  Yes, if the property is very attractive, and it is located in a primary market, like Washington, DC; New York; Boston; or Los Angeles – an area where cap rates are exceedingly low (4.5% to 5%) – a conduit lender might consider a Debt Yield as low as 8.0%.

Why did the conduit industry start to use the Debt Yield Ratio?  For over 50 years commercial real estate lenders determined the maximum size of their commercial mortgage loans using the Debt Service Coverage Ratio.  For example, a commercial lender might insist that the Net Operating Income (NOI) of the property be at least 125% of the proposed annual debt service (loan payments).

But then, in the mid-2000’s, a problem started to develop.  Bonds investors were ravenous for commercial mortgage-backed securities, driving yields way down.  As a result, commercial property owners could regularly obtain long-term, fixed rate conduit loans in the range of 6% to 6.75%, which was stunningly low rate from a historical perspective.

At the same time, dozens of conduits were locked in a bitter battle to win conduit loan business.  Each promised to advance more dollars than the other.  Loan-to-value ratio’s crept up from 70% to 75% and then to 80% and then up to 82%!  Commercial property investors could achieve a historically huge amount of leverage, while locking in a long-term, fixed-rate loan at a very attractive rate.

Not surprisingly, the demand for standard commercial real estate (the four basic food groups – multifamily, office, retail, industrial) soared.  Cap rates plummeted, and prices bubbled-up to sky-high levels.

When the buble popped, conduit lenders found that many of their loans were significantly upside down.  The borrowers owed far more than the properties were worth.  The lenders swore to never let this happen again.  The CMBS industry therefore adopted a new financial ratio – the Debt Yield Ratio – to determine the maximum size of their commercial real estate loans.

I had an interesting conversation with a conduit lender this week, and he pointed out that conduit loans are now being priced according to their Debt Yield Ratio.  For example, the interest rate on an office building loan might be priced at just 170 bps. over swap spreads if the Debt Yield Ratio is 10.0%, but the interest rate would be pegged at 185 bps. over swap spreads if the Debt Yield Ratio was just 9%.

Just a reminder from yesterday’s lesson, the interest rate on conduit loans is now computer based on the greater of U.S. Treasuries or swap spreads.

Commercial Loan Rates Being Quoted By Banks Today

This is going to surprise you, but commercial banks, credit unions, and federal savings banks (the old S&L’s with a Federal charter) all quote pretty much the exact same interest rates and terms on commercial real estate loans.

This is true for huge commercial banks in Los Angeles and for little credit unions in Maine.  No matter where the property is located, as a commercial loan broker, you will always know what to quote.

To be clear, we are talking about commercial real estate loans on standard commercial rental properties, like office buildings, shopping centers, retail buildings, and industrial buildings.

The rates and terms will be a little more scattered for multifamily properties.  Some banks, especially savings banks, love-love-love apartment buildings.  They will quote delicious interest rates and terms.

Smaller commercial banks are less enamored with apartment buildings because their owners seldom keep huge deposits in their company checking accounts.  If they have cash, they immediately go out and buy another building.  In contrast, widget manufacturers might keep large balances in their bank for the the new bank to win.  Banks, especially smaller ones, are all about deposit relationships.

Before we get into the interest rates being quoted by banks on commercial loans today, let’s first talk about terms:

Amortization:

Most banks will quote a 25-year amortization.  A twenty-year amortization is to commercial loans what a 30-year amortization is to home loans.  It’s the norm.

If the property is older than, say, than 35-years, the bank might insist on just a 20-year amortization because the property is getting pretty long in the tooth.  The building is not going to last forever.  The bank needs to eventually get their principal back before the termites stop holding hands.

Term:

Most commercial banks today will give you a ten-year term on your commercial loan.

Fixed on Adjustable:

The typical bank commercial loan is fixed for the first five years.  There is one rate readjustment at the beginning of year six, and then the rate is fixed for the remaining five years.

When the rate readjusts, what is adjustment tied to?  In other words, what is the index and what is the margin?

This is going to surprise you, but most banks don’t say!  What????  The promissory note will simply say, “The rate will readjust to whatever the bank is quoting at the time for similar commercial loans.”

What if the bank tries to raise the interest rate to 20%?  This could actually happen, if the dollar were to suddenly collapse.

In such a case, the bank would give you a window in order to pay off their loan, without penalty, with a new loan from a cheaper lender.  A window is a period when there is no prepayment penalty.  Most commercial real estate loans from banks give the borrowers a 90-day window after a rate readjustment.

Prepayment Penalty:

Banks differ on prepayment penalties.  The penalty could vary from 1% to 2% during the entire 5-year term, to a declining prepayment penalty of 3% in year one, 2% in year two, 1% in year three, and perhaps 1% in years four and five.

So what do you quote on a $300,000 permanent loan on a little retail building in Bum Flowers, Alabama?  I want you to quote 3%-2%-1% and none thereafter.  No bank is going to refuse to make a good commercial loan if it can get a declining prepayment penalty of 3%-2%-1%.

Will a bank ever make a commercial real estate loan with absolutely no prepayment penalty?  The deal would have to be very, very good to get them to waive it completely.

Interest Rate:

Banks all quote pretty much the exact same interest rate – between 2.75% to 3.5% over five-year Treasuries, depending on the quality of deal (more on this below).

Five-year Treasuries as of January 22, 2021 were 0.44%.  Therefore the bank is going to quote you between 3.19% to 3.94% today.

You can always find the latest commercial real estate interest rates and Index values by going to our wonderful Resource Center.  Be sure to bookmark this wonderful reference source.

Quality of the Deal:

Here are the factors that affects bank interest rates on commercial loans –

    1. How much cash does the borrower keep in the bank?  The more liquid your borrower, the lower his interest rate.
    2. How old is the property?  The younger the building, the lower the rate.
    3. How gorgeous is the building?  The prettier the building, the lower your rate.
    4. How desirable is the location?  If your building is located on the bets street in town, you may get the bank’s very lowest commercial loan interest rate.
    5. Assuming you are at a bank of suitable size, the larger the loan, the lower the rate.  Big banks make big commercial loans.  Small banks make small commercial loans.  Match the size of your bank to the size of your deal.
    6. How close is the building to the bank?  The further your building is from the bank, the higher the interest rate you will probably get.

Moral of the Story:

Always apply to a local bank.

By George Blackburne

What To Seek In A Mortgage Banker?: 6 Priorities

Whether, one is looking, to purchase a new home, and/ or, feels it is in his best – interests, to refinance, for whatever reason (for example, other financial need, seeking better rates, etc), it’s important to carefully choose/ select, the best mortgage banker, for you! Since, each of us, is different, and, the combination of one’s personal knowledge and experience/ expertise, as well as our emotional composure/ make – up, it is, often, a significant consideration, ensuring, choosing, the right person, for you, to professionally, assist you, in your financing/ mortgage needs! With that in mind, this article will attempt to, briefly, consider, examine, review, and discuss, 6 specific priorities, one should consider, in making their choice/ selection.

Photo by Tim Mossholder from Pexels

1. Listens effectively: Like, in many consumer positions, etc, it is wise, to choose, someone, who listens, effectively, rather than dominating the conversation! How can anyone, make the best recommendations, in terms of, mortgage – terms (lengths, down – payments, using – points, etc), unless/ he, fully considers, individual needs, in a customized way, rather than, merely, proceeding, on a one – size – fits – all, basis?

2. Custom service: Each of us, has individual needs, knowledge, etc, so, choose a mortgage banker, who customizes his approach, to best serve your needs, priorities, and best – interests, instead of, merely, the same – old, same – old, manner! Since, for most people, their house, represents their single – biggest, financial asset, doesn’t it make sense, to carefully, consider, all relevant aspects, and details?

3. Explains thoroughly, what is needed: Beware of the difference, between, being, pre – qualified, and pre – approved, for a loan! The more detail, and documentation, up – front, generally, eases the rest of the transaction period. Seek, someone, who, openly, thoroughly, explains, what will be needed, an overall strategy, and the best path, forward!

4. Explains thoroughly, what to expect: Few things, become more stressful, than being confronted with surprises, and the need, to produce, on a timely basis, additional documentation, etc. When, your chosen professional, thoroughly, explains, what to expect, and has you, as prepared as possible, it significantly, eases the process!

5. Hand – holding: Many find the entire, real estate transaction period, stressful, it demonstrates, how important, your choice of your agent, and mortgage banker, is! It is best, to choose, someone, and/ or, a team, which is there, for you, every – step, along the way, and holds – your – hand, and comforts you, throughout!

6. Expedites/ stays on – the – ball: It’s not enough, for someone, to be, simply, a glorified, order – taker! Seek someone, who, proactively, expedites, and eases the process, is consistently, prepared (no surprises), and stays, on – the – ball!

Ease the home – purchasing, and/ or, financing process, by hiring the finest, mortgage professional, for you, and your specific needs, and priorities! The wiser, you proceed, the easier, this will be!

Article Source: https://EzineArticles.com/expert/Richard_Brody/492539

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/10416029

Are Low Interest Rates, The New – Normal?: 4 Questions

We are currently, witnessing, a period, of time, with the longest, extended period, of historically, low, interest rates, in recent memory! While, there are many reasons, for this, it may be, beneficial, to better understand, the fundamentals, and relationships/ ramifications/ impacts, of this sort of prolonged, extended period. However, it’s also important, to recognize, since, we have never witnessed this, before, our concepts are based on theories, concepts, and apparent, common sense. Will interest rates, remain, this low, and become, the New – Normal, or, will, we, once again, see cycles, over – time? With that in mind, this article will attempt to, briefly, consider, examine, review, and discuss, 4 questions, and whether, it will, in the longer – run, create undesirable ramifications.

1. Historic lows – How low, will rates go?: In the last year, or two, many have believed, we experienced, the lowest rates, only, to discover, they went, even – lower! Although, these are historic lows, how low, will they go? We observe mortgage interest rates, which have never been lower, in recent memory, and the impacts. In housing, it means, a buyer, can purchase, more house, for – his – bucks, because, it creates low monthly payments, etc. It also means, individuals, can qualify for bigger loans, because, their monthly expenditures, are a lower percentage of one’s overall income, etc. When, banks pay, such low – interest, and bonds, such, low dividends, it contributes, strongly, to the rising stock market, for a number of reasons, including, it being, the only game, in – town! However, banks and lenders, also, reap large profits, because, they still charge high rates, on credit cards, and, other, unsecured – consumer loans! It helps car dealers, because, especially, lease rates, but, also car loans, becomes more attractive!

2. Historically, rates fluctuate?: Will they do so, this time?: A review of historic trends, indicates, rates fluctuate, over – time. Since, they seem to have usually done – so, will this occur again, and, if – so, when? Since, the United States budget deficit is also, at a record – high, will that prolong, or reduce, this current period?

3. Relationship between rates and stocks: Because, when rates are low, using bank vehicles, or bonds, bills, etc, become less attractive, largely, because, they may not, even, keep – up, with the inflation rate, especially, in the long – term! Therefore, the stock market, usually benefits, because, many borrow cheap – money, and invest it, in stocks, and, it also, becomes, the only game, in – town!

4. If this continues, what will Federal Reserve use, as new/ future incentives. stimulus: Historically, the Federal Reserve, used lower rates, to stimulate investing, and/ or, spending. If this becomes the New – Normal, what will be the weapons, available, etc?

Will this become the New – Normal, or, just, a temporary, cyclical occurrence? The smartest strategy is to understand impacts, and be prepared!

Richard has owned businesses, been a COO, CEO, Director of Development, consultant, professionally run events, consulted to thousands, assisted with financial planning, and conducted personal development seminars, for 4 decades. Rich has written three books and thousands of articles. Website: http://plan2lead.net and LIKE the Facebook page for planning: http://facebook.com/Plan2lead

Article Source: https://EzineArticles.com/expert/Richard_Brody/492539

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/10411172

Recession, Depression, Inflation, Stagnation?: Economics Concepts Which Matter

The public is, often, bombarded with, a variety of economic terms, which, often, instead of helping the untrained, better understand, merely confuses them. How often have we heard, terms, such as, recession, depression, inflation, stagnation, etc, but, many, have only a limited understanding, of what that means? As, a former, licensed, representative, and principal, for a financial services company, I have learned, and developed, an understanding, and appreciation, for what these mean, and their potential impacts. Often, I try to make others, feel more comfortable, by joking, that the difference, between, a recession and a depression, is, it’s the former, when it happens, to you, but, the latter, when I am affected! With that in mind, this article will attempt to, briefly, consider, examine, review, and discuss, these four concepts/ principles, and what they mean, and represent.

Photo by Tim Mossholder from Pexels

1. Recession: A recession is, generally, defined, as a period, of temporary economic/ financial decline, when, trade, industrial activities, and other economic indicators, are identified, in, at least, two consecutive quarters. It is usually reviewed, in terms of, the Gross Domestic Product, or, GDP, which measures, overall economic performance, in a specific nation. Often, the Federal Reserve Bank, uses several tools/ methods, to attempt to enhance activity, including reducing interest rates, etc.

2. Depression: When, the recession, becomes, even more severe, and endures, for a significantly, extended period of time, it is often, considered, a depression. We might witness, either, a specific component of the economy, which is depressed, such as housing, or industry – specific, or, an overall one. Nearly, everyone, is familiar, with the period, which began in 1929, and extended, for several years, which is referred to, as, the Great Depression.

3. Inflation: Inflation is the rate at which, a specific (or several) currency, falls, and, results, in an overall, rise in most prices of products, and services. The usual pattern, of the Federal Reserve Bank, is, to increase the costs, of borrowing money, also referred to, as interest rates. In most cases, when these increase, significantly, many individuals discover, their wages, do not keep up, with the inflation rate!

4. Stagnation: When we refer to, stagnation, in economic/ financial terms, it refers to a significant period of little, or lack of activity, growth, and/ or, meaningful development! When, this occurs, for a prolonged period of time, it generally, creates a loss of employment possibilities, and, often, more unemployment. Historically, governments use a variety of economic stimuli, to strengthen, overall economic activity, and hopefully, restore us, to a stronger, better, financial condition.

When it comes to money – matters, the more, one knows, the better – off, we might be, in being prepared, for eventualities. Learn as much as you can, for you own best interests.

Richard has owned businesses, been a COO, CEO, Director of Development, consultant, professionally run events, consulted to thousands, and conducted personal development seminars, for 4 decades. Rich has written three books and thousands of articles. His company, PLAN2LEAD, LLC has an informative website http://plan2lead.net and Plan2lead can also be followed on Facebook http://facebook.com/Plan2lead

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Monetarism In Economics

Monetarism is actually a set of views depending on the perception that the entire sum of money in an economy is actually the main determinant of economic development.

Monetarism is directly linked with economist Milton Friedman, who argued, dependent on the amount concept of cash, that the federal government must maintain the money supply relatively constant, expanding it slightly every year largely to allow for the organic progress of the economy.

Monetarism is actually an economic idea that says that the source of cash in an economy is actually the main driver of economic development. As the accessibility of cash in societies increases, aggregate need for goods as well as services goes up. A growth in aggregate demand really encourages job development that brings down the speed of unemployment and influences economic development. Nevertheless, in the long-range, the growing need will ultimately be bigger compared to supply, creating a disequilibrium in the marketplaces. The shortage the result of a higher need than supply is going to force costs to go up, leading to inflation.

Monetary policy, an economic device used in monetarism, is actually applied to change interest rates to manage the money supply. When interest rates are improved, individuals have much more of an incentive to conserve than to invest, therefore, contracting or reducing the money supply. On the flip side, when interest rates are actually lowered observing an expansionary monetary system, the expense of borrowing decreases that means folks are able to borrow even more and invest more, therefore, revitalizing the economy.

Because of the inflationary consequences which could be brought about by too much expansion of the cash source, Milton Friedman, whose job formulated the concept of monetarism, asserted that monetary policy must be performed by focusing on the growth rate of the cash source to keep economic and price stability. In the book, A Monetary History of the United States 1867 – 1960, Friedman proposed a fixed growth rate known as Friedman’s k percent rule, which recommended that money supply must develop at a continuous yearly speed tied to the nominal GDP growth as well as conveyed as a fixed percent per year. By doing this, cash supply are going to be likely to get moderately, companies will have the ability to count on the changes to the cash supply each year and also strategy accordingly, the economy will develop at a constant speed, and inflation is going to be maintained at levels that are low.

Central to monetarism is actually the Quantity Theory of money, that says that the cash supply multiplied by the speed at what some money is actually spent per year equals the nominal expenditures in the economy.

Monetarist theorists observe velocity as frequent, implying that the some money supply is actually the main element of Economic growth or GDP growth. Economic development is actually a characteristic of economic activity as well as inflation. If velocity is actually predictable and constant, subsequently an increase (or perhaps decrease) in money will result in an increase (or perhaps decrease) in possibly the price or quantity of goods and services sold. An increase in cost levels denotes that the quantity of goods and services sold created will continue to be constant, while a growth in the amount of goods produced implies that the typical price level is going to be fairly constant. Based on monetarism, variants in the some money supply will affect cost levels over the economic and long-term output in the short term. A shift in the cash supply, consequently, will immediately determine employment, production, and prices.

The perspective that velocity is actually regular serves like a bone of contention to Keynesians, who think that velocity shouldn’t be regular since the economy is actually subject and volatile to regular instability. Keynesian economics states that aggregate need is actually the answer to economic development and also supports some activity of central banks to inject more cash into the economy to boost interest. As reported previously, this runs contrary to monetarist idea and that asserts that such actions can lead to inflation.

Proponents of monetarism think that managing an economy through fiscal policy is actually a bad decision. Increased government intervention interferes with the functions of a completely free market economy as well as may lead to big deficits, improved sovereign debt, and also greater interest rates, that would ultimately force the economy into a state of destabilization.

Monetarism had the heyday of it in the first 1980s when economists, investors and governments eagerly jumped at each brand new money supply statistic. In the many years that followed, nonetheless, monetarism fell out of favor with economists, as well as the link between various methods of inflation and money supply proved to be much less distinct than almost all monetarist theories had recommended. Many central banks now have stopped establishing monetary targets, rather have adopted stringent inflation targets.

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Winning At The Proposal Game

Bids, Tenders and Proposals

Submitting bids and tenders is a great way to grow and expand your business and is a great way for a small company to become a much larger company. It can be frustrating and costly to bid, this work taking you away from other business activities. However, winning a bid gives you access to a new customer and other project opportunities. You also have to consider as to whether you have the financial standing and moral fortitude to undertake large projects so choose your opportunities with great care. Smaller projects can help your company grow efficiently and profitably with less drama and anguish. Here are a few pointers to remember when producing tenders.

1. Work in partnership on larger tenders, spreading the risk, costs and work required with a similar company, but also the profit.
2. Make sure that what you bid on you can actually provide at the price that you bid on.
3. Be on time with your submission – if you miss the cut off date and time you will not be evaluated.
4. Ask and review the questions if you are unsure. Questions asked are a great way to understand what other bidders are struggling with as well.
5. Similarly attend the briefings.
6. Read the RFP and PQQ numerous times, particularly the guidance notes, the must haves and the evaluation criteria. This gives you a wealth of knowledge about what is required and what will score you good points.
7. Keep to the word count and guidance on what to produce. If it says no attachments for example they will not evaluate these so keep this information in the main body of the tender. This includes CVs/Resumes.
8. Research: Look at sample tenders on the internet and try and find out who your target company deal with currently.
9. Understand your target company and what kind of objectives and visions you have. Prove in your tender that you understand the company.
10. Understand who you may be competing against and try and find your USP that will put you above them.
11. Do not use jargon without explaining it first.
12. Do not lie on your proposal in order to win – it will come back to haunt you if they find out or you win a bid you cannot produce.
13. Many companies are risk adverse so ensure they understand how you are mitigating risk.
14. Mention your company name at least once in each question- just to remind the weary evaluator who you are. Be positive about what you CAN provide. No modesty allowed in proposals.
15. Make your target company excited about working with your company whilst also giving them confidence that you can provide a winning solution.
16. Do not mention competitor names or make any reference to them, but make sure that you appear better than them in your proposal.
17. Use consistent branding and great presentation throughout your proposal, particularly if it is written by more than one person.
18. Ensure all the attachments have your company name, copyrights and bidding reference on them and obviously if you refer to an attachment, make sure they are actually submitted.
19. Ensure that your costing model is accurate and makes you a profit. Winning because you have a low priced bid is no good if you are tied to a non profit making proposal for the next few years.
20. Lastly quality check to ensure you have answered all the questions correctly, spelt and grammar checked and have not missed out any requirements.
21. Always ask for feedback on your proposal, even if you lose.
22. If you are asked to a presentation, do not assume you have won, they often ask several. Prepare to give the best presentation of your solution that you can.
23. Keep bidding, it’s a numbers game, the more you tender the more chance you have of winning, particularly as you get better and quicker and bidding.

© Copyright 2020 Biz Guru Ltd

Lee Lister writes as The Biz Guru, for a number of web sites where she provides assistance for the business entrepreneur. She is known as the Bid Manager and is a recognized bid management expert.

If you would like assistance in writing your tender or PQQ, visit: http://www.TenderWriting.com or read Proposal Writing For Smaller Businesses which can be found on Amazon.

This article may be freely distributed if this resource box stays attached. ————————————————-

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Winning The War Over Loans And Debts As An Entrepreneur

Having a money sense is critical to becoming successful in life. When an entrepreneur chooses to get to the next level, it is imperative that he takes into cognisance such things that can mar his progress in business. Among the things that can make or mar a business is taking loans. People take loans to meet up with their expectations. However, it takes a wiser entrepreneur to decipher when to or when not to take a loan. Loans can do wonderful things for you when properly managed. It can help solve urgent problems, cater for substantial expenses and grow businesses. Though loans can work perfectly for those who have steady income, yet it has the propensity of entangling those who struggle to earn a living. It is very important for every entrepreneur to note that a mismanaged loan is hell. Credit quickly becomes a source of frustration and can cause real damage to someone’s future financial prospects.

This present generation is a credit bound generation. It is a loan-cultured generation! Countries borrow to finance projects, creating huge damages to their economy, while individuals, companies, organisations, etc delve into the same act of borrowing or taking a loan to make ends meet. Apart from emergency expenses, moving costs, appliance purchases, vehicle finances, wedding expenses, home remodelling, etc, people take loans to consolidate debt. Whatever be the reason to borrow, loan helps as well as entangles.

One of the dangers associated with taking a loan is its strangling nature. You are bound to get chocked if you don’t have your main capital which should exceed the loan. A loan is worth taking only to increase your capital base or to make much more money than the original loan.

Loans can be obtained based on certain terms of agreement between the lender and the borrower, and can come in two forms: secured and unsecured loans. Secured loans require collateral, which could be in a form of property, held back or seized if the borrower defaults payment. Unsecured loans don’t require anything as collateral but typically require a higher credit score. If a borrower fails to pay back an unsecured loan, there is the risk of being sued or having a lawsuit filed against the borrower by the lender or bank.

Money is good, very hard to make but so easy to spend. Our lifestyles most a times help to bring us to a tighter corner. We live so extravagant that our daily/monthly incomes cannot just be enough. Having an attitude problem is one thing, and devising a way to solving it is another. Some of us are ready to make a few tweaks in our lifestyle, stop a few money habits that are toxic to our growth, and take certain steps that will help us break from this cycle.

Growing up, I never knew what is called prudence. I lived so extravagant that it became a problem for me to save for the rainy day. My pocket money was the first to finish and in no time I will start looking for where to borrow. My fellow students were my first point of call. One day, I was deeply insulted by one of them when I approached him for a loan. I gave it a deep thought and decided to change.

Believe me, I was so liberal at school that I could give out my under-wears just to help other students. Little did I know that I was being foolish. Some of them would hide their things and come to share mine. I did not see it coming. I thought I was doing service to humanity. My eyes opened to reality the day I decided to become stingy, so to say. It could be that you have been plunged into perpetual debt, such that you even borrow to pay debt, no matter the interest. Many businesses have collapsed as a result of the owners eating up their capital. The moment they see money, they start spending, especially on irrelevant things. As a business man/woman, does what you spend your money on yield back profit to your business?

You go into a spending spree the moment money enters into your hand. Ask yourself few questions. Some of us have the belief that witches from the villages are the cause of our troubles. Let me tell you, the money in your hand belongs to you. It is only spent on anything by your own approval. If witches are there, you have power over them to control them. Just do the following:

    • Track your spending – If you do not track the way you spend money, you are likely to underestimate how much you spend in certain areas or even to forget some expenses entirely. It is very important to keep your receipts and messages or connect your bank accounts and credit cards to an app that works out the expenses for you.
    • Limit your exposure to debt – Realize that ‘too much credit’ can be very harmful. Taking on multiple loans at a time increase the risk of missing a payment and then getting stuck in nasty cycles of debt – constantly taking additional loans to pay off previous loans which you are already struggling to service is an abrasion. It is very important that you only apply for loans when you need it. A loan is a serious obligation and should be treated as such. Assess your needs prior to applying for a loan, and always try to ask yourself if it is worth it to take loan at this time.
    • Start with the end in mind – Only take loans when you are certain you will have the means to repay on or before the agreed due date(s). Be sure to confirm all interest/fees associated with the loan prior to applying. Only proceed when you are comfortable that you will be able to service the expected repayments. Try as much as possible to avoid late repayments. Late repayments or defaults on loans are not only a breach of the contractual agreement between a borrower and a lender; they also come with very real consequences that can be hard to shake off in the long-term.
    • Minimize your cost of living – When your cost of living is too high, it likely that what you term activities of witches and wizards are the result of high expenses you incur on daily bases. It is advisable to cut your coat according to your size. In other words, try as much as possible to review how much you spend on your fixed expenses and look for areas where you can downsize.
    • Invest wisely – Not investing your money in profitable business can bring about redundancy. Investing helps you make money from money and keeps you financially secure. You basically let your money work for you.
    • Avoid impulse buying – It is natural to say that only animals act on impulse. The animal nature of man can lead him into anything but wisdom. It is in the nature of so many people to get attracted to a nice pair of jeans at the store while buying some household items and so cannot resist buying them simply because they have money in their wallet. Impulse buying can be extremely bad and needs to be curbed if you want to stay away from debt.
    • Avoid comparing yourself to others – Constant comparison between you and your colleagues or friends is never a good idea as you are bound to come across differences that make you see the need to catch up with them. That is not necessary. Focus on yourself, building your savings, and retirement fund.

It important to see patience in the line of what it is – a virtue. Being able to wait for something without being antsy or frustrated is a great skill to have. Break the cycle of living in debt. I did, and I overcame. You too, can!

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